A growing number of economists believe that even if there were to reopen soon and a second wave of the virus did not hit, the recovery would be slow and unsteady; Federal Reserve Bank chief Jerome Powell argues that many jobs will never recover, and the congressional budget office has projected that a full recovery could take years, assuming growth returns in 2020. In addition, cautious behavior by consumers preceded the restrictions imposed by states and municipalities, which manifested itself in increased unemployment, closure of restaurants and movie theaters, as well as self-distancing.
This means that the call for reopening by Trump and the states is not going to deliver the quick results they hope for. Preliminary information indicates that there has not been a substantial increase in consumption and inflows to restaurants and stores. If this trend continues, the recovery will be delayed and it will be adverse to presidential re-election. In the worst-case scenario, that reopening too early would cause a resurgence of the virus, the consequences for health, the economy, and for Trump would be dire.
If despite this negative forecast the president was re-elected, Paul Krugman predicts, based on an analogy with the Hungarian dictator Viktor Orbán, that in his second term Trump will become an autocrat. He would punish all who opposed him, he would restrict the Whatsapp Mobile Number List freedom of the press, he would purge all public officials who did not support him. A key question is whether there will be an economic recovery fast and strong enough to help the president.